Some excerpts from the article:
Recent reports have warned of a ‘mortgage bomb’ that could blow up - and a growing number of people unable to pay back debts. Is the story as explosive as some headlines would have you believe?
“When you apply for a mortgage at those very low rates on offer through the pandemic, chances are you would have been tested at rates that are closer to where we’re at now,” Westpac’s Satish Ranchhod told Checkpoint this week.
“People are getting pay rises. Over Covid, we saw both businesses and personal customers really tighten their belts, improve their savings habits and paid down debts. Thirty five-odd percent of our home loans are more than six months ahead on their repayments.” [Says ANZ]
Interest.co.nz said the proportion of home loans in arrears on the first of May was lower than the 1.5 percent recorded at the start of March 2021.
Westpac told Bloomberg they’d seen an uptick in customers seeking financial support, but it said most of that was due to Cyclone Gabrielle in February. Kiwibank said it hadn’t seen a significant uplift in consumers requiring support.
BNZ said that less than half of 1 percent of its mortgages were in arrears for 90 days or more - far lower than the average of 1.9 percent in arrears back in March 2020. Bernard Hickey in his newsletter, The Kaka, said talk of a mortgage bomb was “reckless”.
Hickey said those most likely to be in a difficult position now would be those who took risks to buy properties which they did not currently live in.
“They are effectively … complaining about a government policy which made that investment choice riskier. That would be like saying the government should help out or bail out people who borrowed money to buy shares,” he said.
Banks wouldn’t lie (or at least, they would lie through omission), they would pick and choose which data to release. But if they say 0.5% of customers are behind on payments when this was 1.9% at the start of 2020, then this will be true.
Banks stress test on higher rates than the current rate, and (many) incomes have gone up a lot in the past few years, so I think it makes sense that there isn’t a run of people in trouble. Far more likely is that when unemployment goes up, this would lead to an increase in mortgage borrowers in trouble.