Morgan Stanley sees two potential outcomes for housing prices next year.
One, if mortgage rates slide from their peak this year, the housing market could see demand ramp up, pushing prices up another 5% in 2024.
On the other hand, if mortgage rates remain high and the U.S. enters a recession, that will scare off homebuyers and home prices will recede more.
So effectively, either way, they will remain out of reach.
Same as it ever was.
Were are the houses supposed to come from? I don’t see many being built around me. Sellers aren’t just going to put their house up for sale unless they have someplace to move to.
1.6 million houses are being built annually right now in the US. Some of that is in big developments somewhere else but if people are buying those homes they are not buying the homes near you so there is one more house on the market near you.
Also, almost 3.5 million people die every year and that doesn’t account for people moving into old folks homes etc.
Black rock could be selling, if ownership isn’t as profitable as they expected.
So the scenarios are:
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Interest rates go down and prices go up. Making it more expensive to get a house.
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Interest rates stay the same, number of homes increase, causing prices to go down.
I can’t tell how either scenario is a good deal for current homeowners.
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Yeah, it’s easier to sell my home, but harder to buy a new one.
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Easier to sell my home, for less money, and I get a higher interest rate on a new home.
Lose/Lose.
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