I get being concerned but it’s way too early to panic. Historically, polling isn’t predictive until June of the election year. A year out from the 2012 election, Obama’s numbers were worse than Biden’s and he still won in a landslide. In modern presidential elections, incumbents have won about 75% of the time. Abandoning the benefit of incumbency is almost always the worst thing you could do.
I do think if we had a decent dem candidate in the wings, now would be a good time to abandon the incumbency. Having incumbency might be more valuable in 2028 than 2024. The Republican party isn’t getting better any time soon. At least Trump’s an idiot who will often shoot himself in the foot (even if he does have a surprising immunity to foot lead.)
I get being concerned but it’s way too early to panic. Historically, polling isn’t predictive until June of the election year. A year out from the 2012 election, Obama’s numbers were worse than Biden’s and he still won in a landslide. In modern presidential elections, incumbents have won about 75% of the time. Abandoning the benefit of incumbency is almost always the worst thing you could do.
Too early to panic… unless Biden leaves the mortal plane.
Hopefully DNC has a plan in place for such contingency.
Kamala Harris 2024, unfortunately. Which would result in Trump 2024.
I do think if we had a decent dem candidate in the wings, now would be a good time to abandon the incumbency. Having incumbency might be more valuable in 2028 than 2024. The Republican party isn’t getting better any time soon. At least Trump’s an idiot who will often shoot himself in the foot (even if he does have a surprising immunity to foot lead.)