I think they meant more like they wouldn’t have been able to afford the same house 4 years later, due to appreciation of the house, the increase in property taxes on that appreciation, and higher mortgage rates to boot. That or they had a variable APR loan.

The former case happened to us and is how my coworkers and I sometimes discuss the housing market - house values increase so fast where we are, buying a month later would have gotten us an appreciably worse home. A month later, worse again. Prices were increasing 25+% YoY. If we hadn’t locked in when we did (Dec 2020) I’m not sure we would have found a place. The mortgage rates seem to not matter because so many of the buyers scooping up houses are older families with lots of money buying investment properties, or whole ass corporations (often foreign corporations) willing to pay 20% over asking, in cash, and waive inspection, to lock out any other prospective buyers.

Insurance is about 50% more than when we bought the house and taxes are maybe 10% higher due to rate increases and the increasing value. We would barely be able to afford half the house we’re in if we bought today.

The only reason we switched from doing our own to paying a CPA is when my wife started operating her own business. This was more to have someone to ask questions about making sure she covers all of her tax obligations who can answer authoritatively and back us up if anything comes back to us in the future (since she is sole prop. and going it alone). We paid $200 the first year, and considering turbotax would have been about that much, getting our taxes filed for us was practically just a bonus. She charges a little more now, but it’s still worth it IMO just to not have to deal with doing the actual paperwork and having someone who will help us out if anything does come back to us. I would say anyone who just has W2 income and maybe some stock sales doesn’t have a complicated enough situation to warrant a CPA, and should just use FreeTaxUSA (and hopefully over the next couple years, the auto filing program with the government will eliminate the need for that, too).

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it feels like treading water and then rather suddenly having a credible chance.

That’s a good reminder. Just haven’t had one of those years yet. Thanks for the perspective.

I didn’t think an expense ratio of 0.08% was considered high?

Everyone always quotes the growth of the S&P500, but isn’t pretty much no one 100% invested for their entire retirement in the S&P500? My 401k is in a target date 2055 and my Roth is split between FXAIX (S&P500, 55%), FSPSX (international, 20%), FSMAX (extended market, 15%), FXNAX (bonds, 10%). It’s a little conservative but not that conservative.

Fidelity says my Roth 1Y returns are 10.8% compared to S&P 500’s 10.3%. It says my 1Y returns on my target date 2055 are 18.0%. Neither of those numbers can be accurate so it’s hard to know what to read in to them. If I try to calculate my returns in a very simple way (take current value, subtract contributions from the last 12 months, which can be easily looked up, call that number X, then find the growth rate that takes the account value I had as Nov. 1st last year and compound that at different rates until it produces X as of now - this gives an upper bound on returns, since the returns of the various money deposited throughout the year at random times is treated as not growing at all), I get 1%. And that’s 1% before inflation.

I know the S&P500 is 10% YoY over really long time scales, and I also know that number is like +/-15% year to year. But it feels like my fund picks are pretty normal yet they’re not worth any more than what I put in to them since I started saving. Because of that, I’d have to have a 30+% savings rate in order to catch up to the “X salary by Y age” rule because the assumptions over the growth rate of the accounts are wildly off in the years since I started investing.

Thoughts? I have to admit I’ve been nervous about this for a while now, with “once in a generation” events happening on a seemingly yearly basis, I started saving for retirement in 2019 and it seems like things have essentially traded sideways since then - my accounts are barely worth more than the money I’ve put in to them. The article is quite gloomy.

Unfortunately you can’t just recuse yourself from society. You’re still impacted by who the president is even if you don’t vote for them.

You’re still using public utilities. Driving on public roads. Interacting with people who went to public schools.

Acting like both choices are the same because they will always eventually do something you don’t like is disingenuous and you know it.

The people I know who’ve given up on housing affordability unfortunately are not shifting in to retirement. They’re so hopeless they blow their money on hobbies because they don’t foresee any possible path to homeownership or retirement and value a few bucks here and there on discretionary spending more.

Same, I was averaging 5~10 fights per long rest by the end of the game because I was trying to efficiently swap people out depending on who was low on health or spells, or use whoever I thought would have the most relevant dialogue for the quest(s).

My default roster was usually either Shadowheart, Gale and Laezel or Karlach, Wyll and Astarion. I was playing an archer sniper ranger so I basically always had two melee, one caster blaster and me as DPS and CC through arrows. I actually really liked the arrow system to give bow users more utility and if I ever run a campaign I’d like to adopt that. I’d make them cheaper though.

I never got to actually use Halsin. I tried to swap him in several times and it just never worked, then he was killed via plot events in act 3 via a mechanism where I could not save him. I used Jaheira a bit in late act 3, just for the Harper & Minsc stuff, not much after that. Never used Minsc, too much overlap with me, Laezel and Karlach.

I found both Wyll and Gale pretty frustrating, but that’s likely because I was trying to be so conservative on rests.

Don’t know how people have already run through 3+ times, I spent like 150 hours on my first run and saw probably 85% of the game… also the ending was pretty disappointing. I’m not itching to dive back in but I’d be interested in DUrge as well as interacting with Minthara more.

I had no idea the crucible was even usable for that, wasn’t telegraphed at all. I found the buff/debuff to be infuriatingly inconsistent and eventually the lava mechanic just broke altogether and the only way to leave that zone was to fast travel out of it, and I could never return.

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The match to the mat is really nice!

I am surprised the age would be so young. My dad retired at 67 but went right back to work a year later, still working now (71). Health insurance do be expensive. I wonder how this statistic would capture someone like him. My mother was working until she died at 60, but would have likely been in a similar situation, trying to keep working as long as possible, certainly was not looking at retirement within a year or two.

My wife’s parents are younger (late 50s) but in the same boat, there is no path to retirement for them and they plan to just keep working. The only people I know who managed to retire by any conventional definition are or were Silent Generation.

Also if a quick Google result is anything to go on, Apple sells hundreds of millions of iPhones a year. 3% of that is still a fuckload of people and IMO proves there is a market for it. Just maybe not a market that needs yearly attention. You also have to remember that’s split between tons of SKUs, so you would expect all of them to hover in the single digits to low teens.

I got my wife a 12 Mini - she loves it. The battery life is absolutely the worst thing about it, but it sounds like the 13 Mini was a huge upgrade in that regard and I had hopes it would continue to get better with future versions.

Something else that may not be taken in to account - the kinds of people buying the Mini are I would wager on a longer upgrade period than the kinds of people who buy e.g. a base iPhone or Pro model. The kind of person buying a Mini I would bet is closer to the kind of buyer that has historically bought the SE - they probably only upgrade every 3 or 4 years rather than the more stereotypical 2. Pro numbers are also skewed by the hyper fans who upgrade yearly and therefore show up in the stats a lot more, even though they’re both a firm Apple customer.

There is also this interesting note at the end of the article:

“Other reports … overwhelmingly presented the same picture of low ‌iPhone 14‌ Plus sales, to the extent that Apple was forced to slash production, suggesting that the low sales of the ‌iPhone 12 mini‌ and ‌iPhone 13‌ mini may not have been caused by the device’s size after all.”

I think the Mini should become the new SE. Keep it on 2+ year old CPU, keep it 60Hz, at least the form factor and design language will match the rest of the lineup unlike now where the SE has a design from 2016. That would be perfect for people like my wife, who want the smallest cheapest phone that’s technically an iPhone, and are only going to upgrade every few years.

Act 2 - Too many weird issues to count with Halsin in act 2. Thankfully I was able to talk to him at camp, get him to go meet me at the Inn and then do the Defend The Portal thing. Then he disappeared for a while, had nothing to talk about at my camp, and the “Show on map” button for his quest didn’t go anywhere. Thankfully it did resolve itself later at the end of the act, I think it might have been caused because I did the hide & seek with the cursed tiefling boy “too early” in act 2?

Early act 3 - The booby-trapped toys quest, after getting the Fist officials to realize the toys are trapped, you get a quest update to go confront the toymaker. Weirdly the only options are kill him or let him leave, not turn him in? I let him leave, he vanished and the quest never updated so I still have it.

Late act 3 - All quests related to Kithrak Voss and the Orphic hammer - I spoke to Voss at the start of act 3, then to Raphael, then Voss again. Many hours later, stole the hammer, went to meet up with Voss in the sewers. He would talk to me, but he just said “Follow me to the tap room”, and then he never left the spot. Tried talking to him on all characters, going to camp, reloading, etc. etc. I think this one might have broken him because I normally have at least one summon out (celestial or elemental from Shadowheart, Wyll or Gale) and NPCs go insane if you have a summon they interpret as hostile. I was able to progress the quest but maybe this interrupted him somehow. Anyhow it would have cost me so many hours to go back to a save before that by the time I troubleshot everything that I just gave up. You can still break Orpheus free at the end and get Voss’s help, but you never get the greatsword (which is a shame because Baldur’s Giantslayer literally does not fucking work on the ONLY two mobs in the game that qualify for its bonus damage after the point where you receive it).

I think she is just kinda the default if you have no imagination - softspoken human female that isn’t totally obnoxious.

In terms of female romance options Lae’zel is the only one who it seemed to make sense would be forward enough to try and jump your bones after just 2 or 3 days. Karlach wasn’t even an option for me, she had no romance adjacent dialogue at the tiefling party. I wonder if part of that was just how late she joined up in act 1, I did get her engine “fixed” for the first time but it was one of the last things I did and I can’t remember if it was before or after clearing the goblin camp.

I did really enjoy Shadowheart’s arc though, especially since I generally adopted a policy to not suggest or try to interfere with the companions’ quests. Just left them to their own decisions without trying to sway them, and the fact that Shadowheart chooses to reject Shar and Lae’zel chooses to reject Vlaakith (or at least hear Voss out) made for two of the most powerful moments in act 2 IMO. There is lots to like about all three of them throughout their arcs and that’s part of what makes them so great.

I’m curious about how dielectric grease on the wires is different to 205g0. I’ve always just brushed 205g0 in a thick layer on to the wires and call it good but never tried anything else, and I don’t even really know what to look or listen for to know if I should be doing something different.

I’ve also seen you should use a syringe to inject extra grease in from the top after a few months, but never done that either and curious how important people feel it is.

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I was pretty light on gold for most of the game because I played a sniper ranger so was spending money on arrows CONSTANTLY. Arrow of Many Targets and the one with smokepowder bomb on the end are especially strong but so expensive. I had to raid the bank to be able to afford the Persistence Armor from Dammon for Shadowheart, even after maxing out his attitude… which it was super weird it took 5k in donations considering you know, I saved his bacon twice and I’m trying to save the world.

What I think could have worked was one or two other major late game items could have also been ported to the House of Hope, and you have to part with one knowing you won’t get it back. Like as a signal that you are basically at the end of the game now, you need to pick your final party config and get them as set up as possible and start letting other things go. I went in to the final section with a lot of gear on other people I really wish I’d transferred to my core team.