

If the market continues to trend downwards then illegal trade will fall as well until it’s below pre-excise levels.
If the market plateaus with the illegal market still above pre-excise levels then I’d agree they should remove the excise and call the policy a failure… Well, maybe, you might be able to argue some marginal increase is worth a massive decrease in smoking, not 4x, but maybe 1.1-1.3x.

It is kinda weird how the arguments for this can sound like neocons arguing for the war on drugs.
The difference is the policy is working, with smoking continuing to trend down consistently.