(which isn’t wrong but he’s still the best viable option)
Whoa, hey now I very much object to the certainty of this claim.
Yeah, David Axelrod, senior Obama strategist credited with Obama’s successful elections, Obama speech-writers and communications director, and now numerous long-serving Congressional democrats disagree but, totally the best viable option despite poll after poll showing he’s massively down and Biden’s own current campaign strategists reporting they see no viable path.
If your ship hit the iceberg and is taking on water, any other nearby vessel is a better alternative. At worst, it’s in the same condition. At best, it’s not fucking sinking. 75% of likely voters say Biden is too old to run and Democrats have a better chance with someone else at defeating Trump.
Disclaimer: we need to jump ship now but I’ll vote for a corpse over Donald Trump. I just think we’ll lose if we stick with Biden and the data shows it.
Discussion aside, wtaf is boingboing.net? I’m even hesitant to click that link.
Reliable pollsters are accurate albeit snapshots in time.
Aggregate reliable polls even more so.
Nate Silver’s algorithm is over 90% accurate in its prediction model across thousands of races over the years.
Cook Political Report is the gold standard.
Even internal polls reported by democratic Congressional campaigns as well as the President’s team themselves admit they’re behind.
They were 10 points up at this time in 2020.
If you aren’t going off this, what ARE you going off of, vibes? In one breath you say don’t put stock in polls, then point to an outlier? I mean, what!?
So you can’t comfort me saying that when Biden should’ve come out 1 step ahead from that debate, he is not maybe only 1 step back as he has been for ages, but possibly 2 steps back.
Unfortunately, historically, a split like this is unprecedented. By coming out against Biden publicly, Democratic congressmembers have forced the issue, and it’s not going to result in Biden remaining our best chance, even IF he would have remained our best chance had they remained publicly silent.
Trump is scared shitless of everyone. That’s what it is, being a paranoid thin-skinned narcissist with a brain rotted by stimulants and venereal disease. I wouldn’t trust Trump’s take on electoral calculus, for or against.
If Biden is as easy to beat as some say why try to push him away?
Biden is the presumptive nominee. If Trump didn’t attack his prospective opponent at every opportunity, he would be, and as ridiculous as this is to imagine, even stupider than he is now.
Trump just enjoys being mean and Biden is currently his opponent. When given the choice between shutting up and cruising to a victory and screaming nonsense(while cruising to a win because his supporters are objectively incredibly stupid people) he’s gunna choose screaming nonsense every time.
Unfortunately, Biden may have lost too much support from his own party at this point. It’s probably necessary for him to step down, regardless. You don’t get Congresscritters of your own party calling for the presumptive nominee and incumbent to step down unless it looks godawful going into the election with the current ticket.
It’s probably going to be Harris if he is replaced, which I’m… not thrilled with. But Blue no matter who. I’ll vote for Biden if he’s on the ticket in November - I’ll vote for a fucking potato if I have to in order to oppose fascism. But he very well may be an electoral liability at this point, not a boon.
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Whoa, hey now I very much object to the certainty of this claim.
Yeah, David Axelrod, senior Obama strategist credited with Obama’s successful elections, Obama speech-writers and communications director, and now numerous long-serving Congressional democrats disagree but, totally the best viable option despite poll after poll showing he’s massively down and Biden’s own current campaign strategists reporting they see no viable path.
If your ship hit the iceberg and is taking on water, any other nearby vessel is a better alternative. At worst, it’s in the same condition. At best, it’s not fucking sinking. 75% of likely voters say Biden is too old to run and Democrats have a better chance with someone else at defeating Trump.
Disclaimer: we need to jump ship now but I’ll vote for a corpse over Donald Trump. I just think we’ll lose if we stick with Biden and the data shows it.
I’m not sure I’d put much stock in modern polling.
A study suggests the debate had very little impact, but even if it didn’t, historically, changing candidates this late hasn’t worked out.
https://boingboing.net/2024/07/10/impacts-of-the-presidential-debate-far-overestimated.html
Discussion aside, wtaf is boingboing.net? I’m even hesitant to click that link.
Reliable pollsters are accurate albeit snapshots in time.
Aggregate reliable polls even more so.
Nate Silver’s algorithm is over 90% accurate in its prediction model across thousands of races over the years.
Cook Political Report is the gold standard.
Even internal polls reported by democratic Congressional campaigns as well as the President’s team themselves admit they’re behind.
They were 10 points up at this time in 2020.
If you aren’t going off this, what ARE you going off of, vibes? In one breath you say don’t put stock in polls, then point to an outlier? I mean, what!?
So you can’t comfort me saying that when Biden should’ve come out 1 step ahead from that debate, he is not maybe only 1 step back as he has been for ages, but possibly 2 steps back.
How do you not know boingboing.net?
Anyway, that’s not the source, but Rawstory doesn’t allow ad-blockers, so I linked that synopsis.
https://www.rawstory.com/rs-exclusive/biden-debate-2668724330/
None of those, including my link, is accurate enough to really matter, especially this far from the election.
Thanks. Yeah I genuinely never heard of that site in my life. Seems like it’s been around since forever, too.
To be fair, it used to be a much better, more relevant site, which I only remember because I’ve been around since forever too.
Unfortunately, historically, a split like this is unprecedented. By coming out against Biden publicly, Democratic congressmembers have forced the issue, and it’s not going to result in Biden remaining our best chance, even IF he would have remained our best chance had they remained publicly silent.
Axelrod’s jobs sound like he pretty much retired from active politics
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Trump is scared shitless of everyone. That’s what it is, being a paranoid thin-skinned narcissist with a brain rotted by stimulants and venereal disease. I wouldn’t trust Trump’s take on electoral calculus, for or against.
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Because Bernie never came close to getting the nomination.
I’m a two-time Bernie voter. But what I wanted the outcome of the primary is different than what we got.
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Did you expect Trump to hype up his political opponent?
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Biden is the presumptive nominee. If Trump didn’t attack his prospective opponent at every opportunity, he would be, and as ridiculous as this is to imagine, even stupider than he is now.
Trump has suddenly began attacking Kamala in speeches. It’s quite clear GOP agree Biden is their easiest opponent, too.
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Well that feels a bit like goalpost moving, but sure I guess we will for better or worse.
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You say: “But Trump is still talking about Biden!”
I say: “Actually his latest speeches have begun targeting Kamala directly”
You say: “okay well maybe he is, but we’re all just speculating!”<- moving the goalpost
Do you at least understand how this sounds? Conviction, followed by being demonstrably wrong, then hiding behind speculation.
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Trump just enjoys being mean and Biden is currently his opponent. When given the choice between shutting up and cruising to a victory and screaming nonsense(while cruising to a win because his supporters are objectively incredibly stupid people) he’s gunna choose screaming nonsense every time.
Fuck Biden but never Trump.
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Unfortunately, Biden may have lost too much support from his own party at this point. It’s probably necessary for him to step down, regardless. You don’t get Congresscritters of your own party calling for the presumptive nominee and incumbent to step down unless it looks godawful going into the election with the current ticket.
It’s probably going to be Harris if he is replaced, which I’m… not thrilled with. But Blue no matter who. I’ll vote for Biden if he’s on the ticket in November - I’ll vote for a fucking potato if I have to in order to oppose fascism. But he very well may be an electoral liability at this point, not a boon.