Image is of a Hezbollah missile attack on a military camp west of Jenin.
The situation between Hezbollah and Israel is rapidly escalating, with massive bombing campaigns on southern Lebanon by Israel predominantly on civilians (as the tunnels in South Lebanon are mostly unreachable to the Zionists, just like in Gaza), while Hezbollah and its allies respond with missile attacks predominantly on Israeli military facilities. Israel is spreading an evacuation order to the residents of southern Lebanese villages while also bombing their routes of escape and civilian infrastructure, similar to a terror tactic used widely in Gaza.
Northern Israel is currently under military censorship to hide their losses, so we get very little information other than what the Resistance provides and what videos and images get through the censors.
I don’t know if Israel will dare a ground incursion soon, but it seems fairly likely in the coming days or weeks.
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Last week’s thread is here.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel’s destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia’s youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
https://xcancel.com/maphumanintent/status/1720933055307600231
Reminder that for the Gulf War’s air campaign, the US had nearly 6 months to prepare, move assets into place, build up whole new infrastructure, etc., right next to Iraq without the Iraqis being able to do much to respond. Westerners love to call back on that campaign to justify their belief that the US/NATO could totally destroy any opponent in just a few weeks with their superior air forces, but completely ignore the logistical realities of actually doing so. And today, with the proliferation of long-range precision munitions, actually managing to build up the concentrations of forces and supplies necessary for large campaigns like this is substantially more difficult - we see this already in Ukraine, with Russian deep strikes doing significant damage, taking out ammunition depots and arms shipments, and wiping out various gatherings of Ukrainian troops and mercenaries.
If Iraq had the ballistic missiles that Yemen wields today, things could have gone very differently back then.
And this is why you don’t try to convert your military to a Just-In-Time supply delivery system.
seems pretty obvious they’d expand stores and production? this question is only relevant to the first months of a complete surprise expansion of war, which seems unlikely given the US is the one who starts shit. US allies also have fuel stores and production in the relevant theaters.
Well, the US might pay for expanding stores and production, but we all know that the extra cash would somehow just make its way into various corporations bank accounts with no measurable improvement in capabilities.
we can just see what the DOD itself is thinking:
Those lines in the last screenshot about most hydrogen production being based in Europe caught my eye. Bulk hydrogen production comes from a process called methane steam reforming. Take high temperature steam, crack methane (CH₄) with it, capture the H’s that are released and vent the leftover C’s and O’s to the atmosphere, usually forming CO₂ along the way. Hydrogen is only clean at the point of use. It’s an ecological disaster at the point of production.
And that’s not even getting into H₂ being leaky because it’s the smallest molecule in the universe, and the way hydrogen eats away at its containers due to a process called hydrogen embrittlement requiring frequent replacements of tanks and piping. That’s the big reason that hydrogen-fueled rockets have a limited number of times that they can be fueled and un-fueled, or “de-tanked”, in case of launch scrubs.
Of course the problem post-Nordstream-2-bombing is that Europe is uh… having some issues sourcing methane. If the US decided to tell European NATO partners to decide between supplying US warships and staving off local revolution by their own citizens who are pissed off because they’re freezing their asses off in winter due to lack of natural gas, things get politically interesting.
“enhanced energy command and control” take over their allies’ and weak third world supplies. not sustainable forever but it outlines a viable stopgap to prevent the machine running on empty after a couple months
oh yes, brilliant, forcefully take control of your allies and risk opening even more fronts! BRILLIANT TACTICIANS.
the running dogs of the empire won’t protest lol. they can’t step on like, türkiye’s toes but most will accept US command of ‘theater logistics’ i’m sure. it’s baked into NATO and the east asian allies that the US will outright command their armies, not much further to the materiel stockpiles too
Even assuming that some US refineries can switch over to producing jet fuel (which will raise consumer gas prices presumably), with the recent severe damage to that refueling ship in the Middle East (and how there’s really not that many of them), physically getting the fuel to the ships and aircraft may prove pretty challenging. I think many of us here have been concluding over the past couple years that the US would have a short period of intense activity (say, a month or two) and then logistical realities would force them to back down, and China is extremely unlikely to be toppled in a couple months in the event of a war over Taiwan. While China probably has the ability to do a massive naval invasion of Taiwan and end the conflict in months (at the cost of many thousands of soldiers’ lives), if they’ve been paying attention to Ukraine, then I feel like they’d opt for an attrition war instead. Much safer and uses their advantages (state control of colossal amounts of factories and production which could supply a war for decades if need be) against the US’s weaknesses, their inability to fight a war of attrition.
Don’t forget about the articles a few weeks back about how Military Sealift Command (MSC) can’t retain professional mariners because the pay and benefits suck, and they lost enough that they’re burning through the ones they still have with too little shore leave and too much time away from home.
Materiel-ism is critical to understanding a war. Good post