Smooth move
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Why is Biden running again? Committed to blocking Trump.
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The statement taunts Trump (I did beat you and I’ll do it again).
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Humility; it’s not about my ego, it’s about saving American democracy.
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But also not provocative: a statement of fact, not up for debate.
It also shows he has no real platform or goal for the country besides “not the other guy”.
I think you’ll find that, unlike Trump, there will be a platform with goals and priorities. Traditionaly the DNC releases that come convention time.
“Just wait and see” isn’t a good plan if this election is as serious as people claim for the future of America.
They need to be selling it to us now. I’m tired of the fear mongering and “vote for X or else America is ruined” and I’m sure a lot of normies are as well. It didn’t work in 2016 and barely worked in 2020.
FFS, the primaries haven’t even begun. There’s a committee that writes the platform that has to begin meeting. Did you read the last one? Better yet, have you read Trumps? Trump has never had one.
The primaries haven’t begun but we’ve already been told he’s the candidate since he’s a sitting one term president.
I’m no Trumper but saying he hasn’t announced any plans or platform is silly, the internet is already melting down over his “day 1 plan”.
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As of November 5th “Unnamed Democrat” polls up to 8 points higher than Biden with Trump leading in 5/6 swing states. They’re both historically unpopular candidates with Biden trending downward. Best thing Biden could do at this point is withdrawal set up another Democrat candidate to run. Downvoting these simple polling facts doesn’t make them go away and make everything okay, cause it’s very much not okay right now.
I get being concerned but it’s way too early to panic. Historically, polling isn’t predictive until June of the election year. A year out from the 2012 election, Obama’s numbers were worse than Biden’s and he still won in a landslide. In modern presidential elections, incumbents have won about 75% of the time. Abandoning the benefit of incumbency is almost always the worst thing you could do.
Too early to panic… unless Biden leaves the mortal plane.
Hopefully DNC has a plan in place for such contingency.
Kamala Harris 2024, unfortunately. Which would result in Trump 2024.
I do think if we had a decent dem candidate in the wings, now would be a good time to abandon the incumbency. Having incumbency might be more valuable in 2028 than 2024. The Republican party isn’t getting better any time soon. At least Trump’s an idiot who will often shoot himself in the foot (even if he does have a surprising immunity to foot lead.)
The question is who is the other Democrat candidate? I have the impression that putting fourth a popular candidate goes against everything the DNC stands for.
Exactly the Democrat Superdelegates made it clear in 2016 they would choose the party stalwarts over someone who had a certain chance of winning against the opponent. The reason for that is simply the finances that support the party benefit from the current economic arrangement, and most of those big donors aren’t exclusively Democrat donors.
This is why the position where we ought not to protest the Democrats, yet also consider them the party for change and progress, is irreconcilable with reality. If Democrats are the party of change and progress then it’s necessary to protest and agitate to sway them, if that’s a futile effort then it proves they aren’t the party for the job.
The argument to vote Democrats now is they aren’t Trump, which is valid of course, but it gives Trump incredible power as the locus this hinges on. The Democrat PACs funding ad campaigns for the fascist GOP primary candidates is this strategy in plain view. It works in the election cycle because it coerces votes out of fear, but it’s a losing downward spiral because it actively shifts politics to the right.
Last time I mentioned that poll, people tried to come up with all kinds of reasons to discredit it. Reasons that the poll explicitly stated how it accounted for them.
How do they account for a poll being early AF?
The point of the poll is to see how things are tending, not to see how the election will happen 10 months from now. You’re just another person trying to discredit what you don’t understand.
That’s a bold statement for someone putting so much stock in the implications of 11 month pre-election polling.
You should really comment less on shit you don’t know about, you’re embarrassing yourself.
Okay, feel free to ignore the polls and reap the consequences of that. Remember when the trends of polling was ignored in 2016 and how that turned out?
You should really comment less on shit you don’t know about, you’re embarrassing yourself.
Projection
Hahaha you dumb fuck!
2016 was proof not to put so much stock in polling.
Lol, you just showed your ignorance. The polling showed Hillary constantly losing ground. By the time of the election, she was within the margin of error of most polls. Like I said, you pay attention to the trend. Or you keep your head in the sand just like 2016.
Yup and they just disagree with arbitrary opinions they think are factual and downvote without consideration of how statistics work. If they respond with data it’s some very niche thing extrapolated way beyond it’s significance. Ultimately it’s downvoting what they don’t want to be true as what happens on all social media.
Have you seen people taking statistics classes? It’s almost universally hated because, for some reason, people struggle with it. I really enjoyed it because it’s probably the most practical form of math you can take. I was only one class away from getting a minor in statistics, but wasn’t going to take an additional semester just for that minor.
I really enjoyed my stats classes. It was a lot of really great information and general knowledge.
I do think having that background makes me simultaneously more and less trusting of polls. The recent performance of polls in the midterms and across various races this year are quite surprising to me. They haven’t done a good job of capturing the abortion backlash trend against Republicans.
There would have to be a reason however for their deficiency, and that’s where the stats background is helpful. I’m not going to baselessly dismiss polls because I dislike the results, I need reasons. And the best explanation I can think of is the simple random sample. The people they’re polling don’t constitute a true SRS, because I wager there’s some conflating factor skewing results. Landlines are going to favor older populations. Texting people to take polls is going to have the bias of who actually goes on to take them.
The biggest enemy to statistics is that there’s no law forcing people to answer questions if they’re chosen for a poll.
Landlines are going to favor older populations
Sure, but look at the polling method. They used landlines and cellular.
Alas, “generic Democrats” don’t exist. All the ones we can actually vote for have pesky details, like names and histories. Generic candidates pretty much always outperform specific named candidates. That’s true of Biden, sure, but it’s also true of alternatives to Biden.
Instead, name a specific Democrat that you think will do better, and we can compare their performance to Biden. Who specifically do you propose?
This captures public sentiment towards the party itself not those towards a specific candidate, so really what you’ve said is the point of that poll. The question of why the Democrats, and Republicans for that matter, can’t appeal to popular sentiment is to identify a problem with politics in this era. What if no candidate can fulfill the hyperreal brand that the party’s construct? What if these politics no longer affect economic arrangements, which are consented to by both parties, and are merely a post-political spectacle to choose the aesthetic of the consenting economic arrangement.
Obama really committed the party to the policy-first thing, which requires inventing a popular politics, and he was very good at this and I think is the best the Democrats could offer in this political era. Convincing people something is right after policies that appeal to the party donors are formulated takes someone like Obama. You see this all the time from the former Obama admin Pod Save America guys where they’re always desperately pleading with the audience about why a policy is reasonable, and of course from current Democrat hopefuls.
The exception is obviously Sanders who was polling well against Trump, but Democrat superdelegates and Democrats campaigned against him, because he appealed to popular politics and threatened the economic arrangement of party donors, most of which don’t really care which party is in power. That’s ultimately what has to happen, popular politics has to override the economic interests of the parties. Unfortunately every time that’s appearing to happen in America’s history the powerful manage to divide everyone. That’s largely what Jim Crow did was impose an order to divide the Populists, who were black and white workers demanding better treatment and less corporate financial power driving policy.
So “specific Democrat” here isn’t a who, it’s a different mode of politics.
Yes and the polls show that Hillary will be president
Edit: 85%
If you every played XCOM, you would know that 85% chance to hit is rather low.
Or about the chance of not rolling a 1 on a d6. And I have rolled too many ones in DnD and that was on d20s.
Video games are a great teacher in why to fear probability.
A 1/20 chance to miss? Well fuck, I better make figure out what I’m going to do when (not if) I miss.
A rare weapon that’s 1/100? Time to prepare for ~300 runs/kills to get it.
At this point he’s the only choice not Trump that has a snowballs chance in hell of winning.
Did you say the same thing when it was hillary losing in the polls to trump, with bernie winning… We are about to relearn some history because of bluedog pride. The media wants trump badly, we should be a bit more than alarmed.
Up until Hilary got the Democratic nomination I was a Bernie fan boy, even donated a couple times. Once Hilary got the nod I got behind her because I knew that was the only choice that wasn’t Trump that had a chance of winning. I’m not too proud to vote for the lesser of two evils.
Is that what you are asking?
Who is the Bernie of 2024 in your analogy?
A cardboard box, Newsome, Hickenlooper, anyone under 60 years old with a career organizing people. Doesnt matter the dem party wont nominate anyone.
He is polling worse than Trump. If he didn’t run, a generic dem would win, but many won’t vote for Genocide Joe and will stay home or vote third party. I think his ego gives the election to Trump. How we have two crazy 80 plus year olds as our options disgusts me.
No he isn’t, where are you idiots getting this stuff
Right, that correspond exactly with what I’ve been saying,Trump is barely pulling even at best. You goofy goofs
This might be the first time in history that name calling in an argument descalated things.
I will accept this macaroni-glue plaque and mount it in my refridge.
You can hang it outside the fridge they’re dry noodles they don’t need to be refrigerated
Trump is clearly currently ahead by a narrow margin, and Biden has not been clearly ahead since August. So when the person above said “He is polling worse than Trump” in the present tense, they were right.
Here’s Biden stacked up against presidents of the last half century for approval/disapproval. Him and Trump are historically unpopular candidates.
Ok but that’s his approval rating as being the current president. That doesn’t automatically translate to him losing. For example if I was asked that question I would say I don’t approve of him but given the choice between him and trump I’m picking him. You are using the answer for one question to assume the answer for another.
Here’s Biden vs Trump as well as other potential candidates in swing states to supplement that. He’s losing by up to 8 points in 5/6 swing states as of this Nov 5th poll, that’s also trending in the wrong direction.
And correct this isn’t something where you can say “the poll says this so therefore it’s determined to happen” because we can’t know the future. That’s why we have to take all these factors and see how similar situations turned out before and all that, never assuming absolute certainty.
Not according to the data you’ve provided, especially if you take an ounce of history into consideration.
He’s about even with most presidents who didn’t face major wars, slightly less popular than presidents who were in office during major wars, and low compared to…JFK.
The most popular president of all time.
Shhhhhhocker.
And again, these are polls in a time of unprecedented media bias and corporate influence, so even though they argue against your point and make out that the sky is not actually falling, they are largely irrelevant.
I’m not sure that with you missing it the first time, repeating the relevant data you missed last time will help, but let’s roll the cube-digits:
"He’s about even with most presidents who didn’t face major wars, slightly less popular than presidents who were in office during major wars, and low compared to…JFK.
The most popular president of all time.
Shhhhhhocker.
And again, these are polls in a time of unprecedented media bias and corporate influence, so even though they argue against your point and make out that the sky is not actually falling, they are largely irrelevant."
These polls, with a candidate in a two-party system being a few points lower than the other presidents but within the same range as Obama and Clinton, incredibly popular presidents despite their “numbers” who were elected to a second term, are statistically, contextually and historically irrelevant to “inevitability”.
Biden could lose(that is how voting works), but implying that it’s a lock for Trump because Biden is only as popular as Obama is ludicrous.
Mind the historical context and the statistical irrelevance of your datasets.
You edited your comment but somehow ended up replying to your own comment. Thought you should know.
Show me data that tells otherwise then as I have done. Biden peaked at 55%, Trump didn’t even exceed 50%, and both have been about the same approval/disapproval long term. Past presidents have tanked harder but none have consistently had this low approval and high disapproval ratings.
Here are three quick ones. Regardless of your feelings, people aren’t happy with Biden and his approval rating is horrible. Even an “idiot” like me can use google for a quick search.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/25/biden-polls-worse-trump-00128536
Approval rating has nothing to do with polling. I can’t stand Biden; but I’d support him over traitor to America.
I rather like Biden. Compared to every president for the last 40 years, I think he’s going it less for the ego and more to serve the country.
But he’s too damn old.
Either way, the choice between “too damn old” and “too damn old self-serving, grifting traitor to the country” is pretty easy.
And that’s the sentiment of millions of Americans.
And regardless of how polls try to adjust to compensate and show results among the population, the fact of the matter is that they can only poll a subset demographic of “poll respondents”, which means “people eager to share their political views to anyone who will listen”.
And these days, your average trump voter is orders of magnitude more likely to want to be a loudmouth to anyone who’ll listen…compared to millions of Biden voters who aren’t even Biden supporters.
Of all these people wailing and gnashing teeth over these polls, I wonder how many of them have paid close attention to polls and polling over the last decade. Because most of them, it seems like they only discovered this shit over the past 4 years if that. Some sound like they only learned what a poll was this morning.
Very well said!!
Articles with quotes saying that Trump definitively can’t win, and polls that barely match Trump with Biden neck and neck are not the sources of inevitable proof you think they are. Idiot fatalist crybabies.
If the DNC had any balls they’d run somebody who wasn’t close.
Thereby punching themselves in said balls? There’s a reason they run the incumbent, he has the best chance. Democrats have outperformed polls in the last 2 elections.
Very few like biden. It’s always been this way. The reason he won is also very few people dislike him. Plenty of people dislike trump however
Bro no kidding. Biden needs to retire.
The herd is going to chase you out of here with their pitchforks. Why are you talking sense, you fucking “idiot”? Better get in line and vote blue no matter who, ya hear me???
Why? Remembering this interview recently:
John Kelly, the longest-serving White House chief of staff for Donald Trump, offered his harshest criticism yet of the former president in an exclusive statement to CNN. Kelly set the record straight with on-the-record confirmation of a number of damning stories about statements Trump made behind closed doors attacking US service members and veterans, listing a number of objectionable comments Kelly witnessed Trump make firsthand. “What can I add that has not already been said?” Kelly said, when asked if he wanted to weigh in on his former boss in light of recent comments made by other former Trump officials. “A person that thinks those who defend their country in uniform, or are shot down or seriously wounded in combat, or spend years being tortured as POWs are all ‘suckers’ because ‘there is nothing in it for them.’ A person that did not want to be seen in the presence of military amputees because ‘it doesn’t look good for me.’ A person who demonstrated open contempt for a Gold Star family – for all Gold Star families – on TV during the 2016 campaign, and rants that our most precious heroes who gave their lives in America’s defense are ‘losers’ and wouldn’t visit their graves in France. “A person who is not truthful regarding his position on the protection of unborn life, on women, on minorities, on evangelical Christians, on Jews, on working men and women,” Kelly continued. “A person that has no idea what America stands for and has no idea what America is all about. A person who cavalierly suggests that a selfless warrior who has served his country for 40 years in peacetime and war should lose his life for treason – in expectation that someone will take action. A person who admires autocrats and murderous dictators. A person that has nothing but contempt for our democratic institutions, our Constitution, and the rule of law. “There is nothing more that can be said,” Kelly concluded. “God help us.”
I was having a hard time reading this as a block of text so added some line breaks:
John Kelly, the longest-serving White House chief of staff for Donald Trump, offered his harshest criticism yet of the former president in an exclusive statement to CNN.
Kelly set the record straight with on-the-record confirmation of a number of damning stories about statements Trump made behind closed doors attacking US service members and veterans, listing a number of objectionable comments Kelly witnessed Trump make firsthand.
“What can I add that has not already been said?” Kelly said, when asked if he wanted to weigh in on his former boss in light of recent comments made by other former Trump officials. “A person that thinks those who defend their country in uniform, or are shot down or seriously wounded in combat, or spend years being tortured as POWs are all ‘suckers’ because ‘there is nothing in it for them.’ A person that did not want to be seen in the presence of military amputees because ‘it doesn’t look good for me.’ A person who demonstrated open contempt for a Gold Star family – for all Gold Star families – on TV during the 2016 campaign, and rants that our most precious heroes who gave their lives in America’s defense are ‘losers’ and wouldn’t visit their graves in France.
“A person who is not truthful regarding his position on the protection of unborn life, on women, on minorities, on evangelical Christians, on Jews, on working men and women,” Kelly continued. “A person that has no idea what America stands for and has no idea what America is all about. A person who cavalierly suggests that a selfless warrior who has served his country for 40 years in peacetime and war should lose his life for treason – in expectation that someone will take action. A person who admires autocrats and murderous dictators. A person that has nothing but contempt for our democratic institutions, our Constitution, and the rule of law.
“There is nothing more that can be said,” Kelly concluded. “God help us.”
He couldn’t win if he were in prison you know. But he’s too rich for that
Richer men have died in prison.
I wish we had younger leadership, but it is what it is. Biden is completely correct here, and I honestly don’t doubt that he wouldn’t be running otherwise. Who the hell would want to spend their last years in an incredibly stressful and highly visible position where half the country wants to hate you – when instead you could be retired and do book deals and the like? If not for Trump, I would oppose Biden just on the basis that the best thing for his health is to not be president.
Trump is an existential threat. Biden has beaten Trump before. Biden has an incumbency advantage. Biden is an accepted consensus/compromise by the party. He’s the safest candidate for beating Trump. It may be possible that there’s a better candidate who could also beat Trump, possibly by higher margins even, but we don’t have the luxury to test that.
These idiots are going to be tripping over themselves while fragmenting the voter base. The magabots are union and will vote en bloc. Get ready for another 4 years of misery under 45/47.
If you don’t know who you’re voting for at this point in the game, you’re gonna wind up voting for Trump. There’s no splitting the voter base in a 2 party system. Moderates are de facto conservatives.
I know that in reality most people probably would not want to become a president, but aren’t there really competent / well regarded people who could replace both of them?
I know this is not US specific, it seems like for most countries you never have an option to vote for someone you really want to come in power, it is always about the least shitty option.
But can you name someone specific? The fact is, Trump is enormously popular with Republicans. Biden isn’t well liked by anyone right now, but who is the competent and well regarded alternative? Sanders, Warren, and AOC are divisive with the electorate. Harris and Buttigieg are even less popular. If there’s a consensus candidate, it’s not obvious to me.
I am not from US so do not really know your politics / possible candidates that well.
Is Trump really loved by most republicans / conservatives? Or is it just a very loud part of nutcases? Feels like most would vote for him just to keep democrats away same as democrats vote for someone like Biden, but it is hard to believe they actually love him, at best maybe tolerate him.
According to the polling, Trump enjoys 75-85% favorability amongst Republicans. So, unfortunately, it seems Republicans really do love Trump that much.
Why isn’t Biden liked? What series of controversies did he get involved in that would make him seem like a lesser candidate to Trump?
I think the leading guesses are perceptions about his age, the economy, and his effectiveness. Biden’s favorability is similar to Trump’s at the same point in his presidency, which was, itself, one of the lowest in modern history.
It’s nonsensical but I’m not surprised. Even here on Lemmy, some people refuse to give Biden credit for anything. Cynicism is rampant on the left. I think those who are paying attention see that Biden is governing pretty progressively. Sanders recently said that, “I think he is a much more progressive president than he was a United States senator.”
It’s nothing particularly specific. Conservatives hate him because they hate all Democrats. Leftists hate him because he’s a milquetoast liberal at best. In fact, I was surprised by some of his policies being more progressive than expected, but he still comes with a long history that suggests otherwise.
The people who actually like him are middle of the road Democrats. There aren’t enough of those to make a solid base of support. Biden’s victory hinges on having enough people further to the left who know what a disaster another Trump Administration would be and vote for Biden despite misgivings.
It’s Biden. You’re wrong about whether he’s liked. Well, not you, the polls, which are the basis of your entire argument.
The Rock 2024
The Rock’s image had been so carefully manufactured over the last decade that I can’t trust it. Can we not go with the populist candidate again? I’d much rather have someone boring and professional.
If we’re going the celebrity route, we must go with someone who has never failed the public trust.
THanks24
Isn’t that a catch 22 though? No matter who is president they will fail the public trust in one way shape or form. You are seeing our boy up for failure
Didn’t Tom Hanks have his son forcefully abducted in the middle of the night and taken to a desert labor camp?
And the irony is that several people have already said they won’t vote for Biden. If you actually care about preventing Trump from running you would let another candidate run. And maybe, just maybe, don’t support the country that’s currently killing the family members of all the people whose votes you need.
It’s all about you. I’ll remember that
So, to be clear, not wanting innocent Palestinians to die even though I’m an atheist Jew and not wanting the country to suffer through Trump again is all about me? Got it!
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You still wouldn’t have your platform. Apparently nobody wants to follow your timeline.
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The election is going to come down to 4 sets of 12 people’s votes - Trump’s juries. I’m just not sure if Trump being convicted helps or hurts Biden.
I love all these dumbo red hats in the comments who only want what’s best for the Democrats suddenly, and that is to drop Biden.
Three absolute facts:
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Biden already beat Trump once. He can do it again.
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The electorate changes a lot in four years and is trending rapidly to the left. Republicans been known they will not win another popular election in the foreseeable decades.
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The polls are wrong. The selection bias of “people who answer their phones for unsaved numbers” and the fact that respondents lie to pollsters means polls are incompetent evidence of anything.
Bonus Fact: No matter what happens in election week, Trump will push a new big lie and will again put his political capital (and its violence) into defrauding or disrupting the certification on January 6. Pence won’t be there to be the adult in the room next time, Trump plans to fire all the adults on day one.
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If biden seriously didn’t want trump to win, he’d fucking retire.
We got this guy Not Sure.
Sure, Not
