It’s crazy that there is even anything close in this election. The only hope at this point is if enough republicans get tired of all the “woke war” bullshit and the orange turd’s multiple court cases that they just don’t bother to vote. Political races are treated more like the Superbowl than an important part of our lives, so I just don’t see them voting against “their team”.
This is all that ‘likely voter’ demographic that somehow all still have landlines and answer calls from unknown numbers and tell strangers who they intend to vote for.
Someone needs to fill in the ‘holy shit they exist?’ voter demographic.
Would be a valid criticism if anyone still conducted polls like that, i guess?
https://morningconsult.com/survey-research-innovation/ (talks about their methodology, or for general polling, see the following)
https://medium.com/@hassen.morad/addressing-the-landline-only-polling-myth-473dbb6d46bd
Well their promotional material is doing a good job at least ;)
In case you’re open to learning and not just here to troll:
https://medium.com/@hassen.morad/addressing-the-landline-only-polling-myth-473dbb6d46bd
That shows Morning Consults sources are 100% online… which means their ‘likely voter’ claims can’t be validated by their polling methods. All the orange (landline) in that graph is what these ‘likely voter’ polls are talking about, because that method can reliably be used to validate identity and ‘likely voter’ status.
So I guess +1 for showing Morning Consults is an online poller, not landline, but -10 for thinking online polling isn’t a joke and another -10 for not understanding how ‘likely voters’ are validated.
I always think it’s funny when people don’t understand statistics and they think poll results are just reported straight up and not weighted for a bunch of factors
Oh, didn’t realize I was speaking to an expert that understands ‘weighting for a bunch of factors’ ;)
By all means please explain the methods for maintaining accuracy in online polls.
That gets into how they enhance accuracy. Weighting to reflect your population is just basic stats though. Maybe check Khan Academy or some other math tutor?
? You posted a misleading comment and I corrected it. This poll was run by that company, but nobody does simple cold calling on landlines anymore.
You posted the company’s promo material. You haven’t ‘corrected’ anything.
I mean feel free to- idk why you’re so hostile but if you have material demonstrating their sources and how they contacted ‘likely voters’ for this survey I’d be interested. But just linking the company’s promotional website and acting like you dropped the mic is just silly.
You’re accusing me of being hostile? You’re an odd one lol. The “no you’re angry, not me!” trick doesn’t really work on people over 8. I linked to a longer explanation about polling in general, but considering you didn’t want to read the original link, I doubt you’ll read anything else
Edit: in case you don’t want to click the link again, they primarily rely on online polls, as stated in the material in my original link. That’s why I linked to the website with their methodology?
I replied to your other comment. I know I’m exciting to talk to but let’s keep it to one chain ;)
Everyone celebrate!
In conjunction with Bloomberg, Morning Consult surveyed 807 registered voters and found a 45-45 split with six percent undecided. This is a six-point swing from the group’s February poll that saw Trump with a 49-43 lead.
Biden is tied with trump in his own home state!
This is fucking embarrassing. Not just that we’re running a terrible candidate, but that we’re pretending everything is fine. There’s so many signs that Biden isn’t going to be able to pull this off, but he’s still getting shoved down our throats
People just don’t like Joe Biden, because of his words and (lack of) actions.
